Of all the clean technologies out there, few generate as much buzz as electric cars. If only they generated more sales.
My story for Guardian Sustainable Business this week looks at electric cars, why they have been so slow to enter the mainstream and what the prospects are for quicker uptake of electric vehicles.
Here’s how it begins:
Pardon my metaphor, but is the tank half-empty or half-full when it comes to electric cars?
The bad news: start-up electric-car makers Aptera, Better Place, Coda and Fisker are out of business, or close to it. Of the 14.4m cars sold last year in the US, only 52,835 – one out of every 270 cars sold – were plug-in hybrids, like the Chevy Volt, or pure electric cars like the Nissan Leaf. Even with generous government subsidies, including a $7,500 (£5,000) tax credit for electric-car buyers, there is no hope of getting a million electric vehicles on the road by 2015, a goal set by president Obama in his 2011 State of the Union address.
And yet, virtually all the big auto-makers are charging ahead, with GM, Ford, Toyota, Honda, Volkswagen and BMW expanding their electrified offerings. So far this year, sales of electric cars are up by 123% over 2012, the Electric Drive Transportation Association (EDTA) reports. Influential publications such as Consumer Reports and Motor Trend rave about electric cars – in particular the new Tesla S. And all indications are that electric car owners are pleased with their vehicles.
“There is no buyer’s remorse,” says Arun Baskota, owner of a pure electric car and, more importantly, the president of eVgo, a startup company owned by utility NRG Energy that is building out electric-car charging infrastucture.
To get a sense of where the market is going, I sat down with Baskota after EDTA’s annual convention in Washington, and spoke by phone with Siddiq Khan, the co-author of a new report called Plug-In Electric Vehicles: Challenges and Opportunities, from the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEE). Both are optimistic about the future for electric cars, but they caution that mass adoption will take longer than most people (including, evidently, the president) expected.
The story goes on to argues, as I have before [See my blogpost, If electric cars are the answer, what’s the question?] the the electric-car industry has yet to give car buyers a compelling reason to go electric. And the economics remain a challenge. With a very few exceptions–notably, the all-electric Nissan Leaf–the fuel savings that come from driving an electric vehicle are not big enough to pay back the higher initial costs of the vehicle.
Of course, predicting the future is very hard. Battery costs could drop, and battery performance could increase; in fact, they almost surely will. But until they do, electric cars will remain a niche product.
You can read the rest of the story here.